As record warmth transforms the Arctic, waning political will leaves its communities in peril

This article was written by Jenn Thornhill Verma and Ivan Semeniuk, and was published in the Globe & Mail on December 17, 2025.

The permafrost cliffs around Sachs Harbour, NWT, keep inching closer to residents; this is where they were in the summer of 2024. Locals have had to consider relocating or reinforcing the shoreline.

If 2025 was the year that climate change was supposed to take a back seat to more pressing matters, then there’s one part of the planet that didn’t get the memo.

On Tuesday, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual Arctic Report Card – a collection of concise, peer-reviewed summaries that aims to capture how the climate is behaving at Earth’s northern extremes, including in Canada.

The latest version comes with some big implications for those who live in the Arctic. If efforts to mitigate fossil fuel emissions, the main drivers of climate change, are sidelined, then northern communities will be even further pressed to adapt to a changing environment – and more quickly.

“The Arctic is getting warmer, the Arctic is getting wetter, the Arctic is getting greener,” said Chris Derksen, director of Environment and Climate Change Canada’s climate research division. “Year over year, it may seem like an incremental change, but over 20 years, the body of evidence for the holistic changes to the Arctic – they just become clear.”

A well-known feature of climate change is that the Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet on average. This year’s Arctic Report Card confirms that the region has just logged its warmest year since 1900 – a new extreme that follows the general trend.

Other broken records in 2025 include the lowest maximum sea ice extent in the 47year satellite record, the warmest fall on record and the highest annual precipitation since tracking began.

Multiyear sea ice – the thick, old ice that once dominated the Arctic – has declined 95 per cent since the 1980s, with what remains now largely confined to coastal areas around Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. That difference alone is set to utterly transform the Arctic.

As the report card notes, “The profound changes in sea ice since 2005 are opening the Arctic to more human activity and bringing to the fore concerns about safety, security and the environment.”

Dr. Derksen added that the report card serves as “an annual checkup on what’s happening in the Arctic.” But increasingly, the ocean and lands it describes are beginning to look like an entirely new sort of patient.

NOAA began issuing its report card in 2006 as a way to highlight Arctic change for a broad audience, including policy makers. Canadian experts are among the 112 scientists from 13 countries that authored this year’s 20th edition of the document.

Notwithstanding its international flavour, the effort has always been organized and led by U.S. researchers and is presented each December at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Tuesday’s release comes at an especially fraught time for circumpolar science and collaboration.

Earlier this year, the U.S. administration, guided by President Donald Trump’s open contempt for concerns about climate change, cut hundreds of staff, including scientists, from NOAA’s ranks. Others were blocked from attending international meetings and avoided speaking openly on international calls.

For Canadian scientists, the situation comes with a hint of déjà vu. The last time politics got in the way of U.S. and Canadian climate scientists working together on joint projects such as the Arctic report card, it was prime minister Stephen Harper’s government that furnished the roadblocks.

Yet this year’s report card is surprisingly candid about the barriers, such as “cutbacks in funding and logistical support for Arctic research and spaceborne monitoring capabilities in the United States and the European Union.” Of the 31 observing systems it assesses, 23 depend on U.S. federal support.

Dr. Derksen, whose division works with U.S. counterparts on the report’s snow monitoring, described the impact of entire federal departments in upheaval, compounded by an extended government shutdown.

“You can’t have business as usual when it comes to scientific collaborations when you have disruptions of that scale,” he said.

During a news conference on Tuesday, U.S. authors of the report card acknowledged the challenges they faced.

Twila Moon, a climate scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., and an editor of the report card, said international collaboration helped fill the gaps. “Bumps can happen,” she said. “This was another year where we saw people stepping up, making things happen, working extra time and really hustling, because all of us believe that this is incredibly important information.”

Yet political realities cast a shadow on the briefing once it was apparent that participants, in contrast to previous years, could not speak openly about why the Arctic climate is changing so dramatically.

Repeating a phrase uttered by NOAA’s administrator Neil Jacobs during his congressional confirmation hearings, NOAA’s acting chief scientist, Steve Thur, merely stated that “there is a human role.”

For Canada, home to a vast Arctic coastline and the planet’s third-largest reserve of glacial ice, the strained relations with its closest research partner highlight the need for more domestic monitoring. The country’s own observing systems and Indigenous-led research networks are becoming more critical.

Globally, emissions-reduction efforts have stalled – last month’s COP30 summit ended without a fossil fuel phase-out road map and with new national climate plans delivering less than 15 per cent of the emissions cuts needed to hold warming to 1.5 C.

“Inuit Nunangat is at the forefront of climate change, and irreversible changes are occurring in our homeland,” said Denise Baikie, manager of policy advancement at Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, the national representational organization for Inuit in Canada. (Inuit Nunangat refers to the Inuit homeland, spanning four regions and most of Canada’s Arctic coastline.)

“Our adaptation costs and needs will grow whether or not global temperatures remain within 1.5 or 2.0 degrees. ITK is deeply concerned that Canada won’t meet its emissions targets.”

CHANGES BY SEA AND LAND

This year’s report card documents a litany of changes that are reshaping Arctic ecosystems and outpacing the models scientists use to predict them. Among those highlighted are:

Atlantification

This is the intrusion of warm, salty Atlantic water several hundred kilometres into the central Arctic Ocean. It is happening because a cold-water barrier called the halocline, which historically kept heat trapped at depth and protected sea ice from below, has lost roughly 30 per cent of its stability over three decades.

Climate models have projected that atlantification would not reach the western Arctic Ocean this century; yet, the report card documents evidence to the contrary. In the coastal seas north of Europe, August sea surface temperatures were as much as 7 C warmer than the 1991-2020 average. On Canada’s Atlantic side, the cold Labrador Current still acts as a buffer – but the report card suggests this is a delay, not a reprieve.

Borealization

Warming bottom waters, declining sea ice and rising plankton levels are driving the northward expansion of southern marine species and sharp declines in Arctic species – disrupting commercial fisheries, food security and Indigenous subsistence. In the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas, roughly one-third of Arctic species examined are declining; snow crab and Arctic cod are losing ground while walleye pollock and yellowfin sole push north. Plankton productivity has spiked – up 80 per cent in the Eurasian Arctic, 34 per cent in the Barents Sea and 27 per cent in Hudson Bay since 2003. The result has disrupted the food webs on which Arctic communities depend.

Toxic rivers

Across Alaska, iron and toxic metals released by melting permafrost have turned streams in more than 200 watersheds visibly orange over the past decade. The increased acidity and elevated metal levels

have degraded water quality, eroded biodiversity and in some streams exceeded safe drinking water guidelines for cadmium and nickel. Similar chemical processes have been documented in Canada’s Yukon and Mackenzie watersheds, though visible rusting has not yet been reported at the same scale.

Water security

Glaciers in Arctic Scandinavia and Svalbard experienced their largest annual net loss on record between 2023 and 2024; Alaskan glaciers have lost an average of 38 metres of ice since the mid-20th century. In Canada’s northernmost community, Grise Fiord (Ausuittuq) in Nunavut, the pressure is tangible.

“The glaciers here on Ellesmere Island are disappearing faster than we thought they would, or people predicted,” said Meeka Kiguktak, the mayor of Grise Fiord. The hamlet – situated closer to the North Pole than to Southern Canada – relies on glacier runoff and iceberg water as its only sources of freshwater and is now building a new water plant.

“Ausuittuq means the place that never melts,” Ms. Kiguktak said. “It’s melting now, so we gotta change the name of our community soon.”

Melting glaciers are not the only change the community has witnessed: This year, sea ice arrived late and so rough that hunters couldn’t find seal holes, pushing the season back a month; narwhals and belugas stayed until late October, weeks past normal.

A TRADITION OF WATCHFULNESS

While the changes now evident across the Arctic are historically unprecedented, the report card notes that survival in the region has always depended on close observation of the environment. Only recently has the value of this tradition been fully appreciated. “For too long, Arctic research has treated Indigenous peoples as ‘informants’ or ‘stakeholders,’ ” the report card states, adding that Indigenous experts who combine Western and traditional knowledge to care for their lands and waters “have always been scientists.”

Philippe Archambault, a marine scientist at Laval University who leads the research network ArcticNet, said that he and his colleagues have benefited from the realization that Indigenous peoples in the Arctic constitute a permanent community of observers and analysts. By partnering with them, he said, “we’re doing our work in a more effective way.”

In Canada, Inuit Nunangat is on the verge of complete climate strategy coverage. In 2019, ITK released the National Inuit Climate Change Strategy. The Inuvialuit Settlement Region adopted its strategy in 2021; Nunavik published an adaptation plan in 2024; and Nunatsiavut released its climate strategy this year. When Nunavut’s territory-wide strategy is released next year, it will close the loop: co-ordinated climate frameworks across a vast territory, built from the ground up by the communities most affected.

“Inuit know what’s happening and what’s needed,” Ms. Baikie said. “Decisions about our homeland must be inclusive of Inuit as rights holders and knowledge holders.”

This co-operation stands in contrast to the federal picture. Canada’s Climate Competitiveness Strategy, released in November, has been criticized for lacking Indigenous input. That same month, federal cabinet minister Steven Guilbeault resigned over the rollback of climate policies he had championed, including carbon pricing and the oil-and-gas emissions cap. And a report by the University of Waterloo’s Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation found Arctic coastlines are eroding by up to 40 metres a year – yet Canada lacks a co-ordinated national framework for shoreline management.

The report card sits alongside a growing ecosystem of Arctic assessments: the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP, the Arctic Council’s scientific arm) produces circumpolar reports; the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has its seventh assessment under way, with a synthesis report expected by late 2029; and Canada’s own national assessment, Canada’s Changing Climate, is expected next spring (published every five years, the last was published in 2019). Together, these reports build a layered picture of Arctic change from global to local scales.

But Canada has no equivalent to NOAA’s report card, and federal Arctic science remains fragmented: Natural Resources Canada tracks permafrost and glacier change, Fisheries and Oceans Canada produces Arctic seas reports, while Environment and Climate Change Canada monitors snow and ice.

Dr. Archambault said the situation resembles that of a medical patient who hears only from specialists, without reference to a broader prognosis.

“What we need now is to synthesize, to bring all these different streams of information together in a more cohesive way,” he said.

For John Smol, an ecologist at Queen’s University in Kingston who was just awarded Norway’s Mohn Prize for outstanding Arctic research, the distributed and costly nature of polar science means the region is getting less attention than it should from Canadians over all.

“We’re fickle with the environment,” Dr. Smol said, noting how the country’s vast northern wilderness seems to recede when the national discussion is focused on more immediate matters.

In the long run, however, Canada must prioritize the Arctic and its rapid transformation. Otherwise, he added, “we’re sleepwalking to disaster.”

Inuit scientists adapt to a new marine reality as climate change upends fishing practices

This article was written by Jenn Thornhill and was published in the Globe & Mail on December 18, 2024.

Rapidly changing ice conditions are disrupting fishing traditions and access to essential resources

This is the second of a two-part series on how Inuit communities are adapting to climate change, which is disproportionately affecting coastlines in Canada’s Far North.

Hauling lines from a hole drilled in the seasonal sea ice, Joey Angnatok could easily be ice fishing on the Labrador Sea at the end of March. Early spring or upinngasâk in Nunatsiavut, the self-governing Inuit region in northeastern Newfoundland and Labrador, is a time when many people enjoy going out on the ice to fish and hunt for wild foods.

But instead of using a hook and line to catch fish, the Inuk knowledge keeper and fisherman is using a device called an “IceShark” to collect phytoplankton and zooplankton, the ocean’s tiniest plants and animals.

“I’ve long been a fisherman, but I never imagined I’d be a plankton hunter ,” says Mr. Angnatok, who helped design the harvesting instrument, which mimics ab asking shark.

Just as a basking shark filters seawater through its mouth and gill rakers to feed on plankton and small fish, the IceShark strains water through a four-foot-long cylinder and mesh funnels to trap plankton in a collection tube.

The sample Mr. Angnatok is collecting will go to a local lab to determine whether plankton have bloomed yet, aiming to fill a crucial data gap in the region. While it may not look like the food he lands at the local fishing wharf, plankton is vital nourishment for the entire marine food chain, including the country foods that are important to Labrador Inuit.

In Canada’s Far North, climate change is speeding up the melting ofseaice, which in turn is cuing an earlier spring arrival of plankton. That shift could further threaten Labrador Inuit’s access to the wild foods they rely on for nutrition and which hold cultural significance in Nunatsiavut.

In this region, access to country foods is already constrained by the rising costs of getting out on the land, water and ice to hunt, fish, trap or gather. Since storebought foods are shipped in by airplane or ferryboat, stocking up on healthy, affordable options also remains a challenge because these foods are frequently expensive, inconsistently available and, in the case of perishable items, often arrive in suboptimal condition.

“The high prevalence of food insecurity among Inuit is among the longest-lasting public-health crises faced by a Canadian population ,” the Inuit Tap ir iitKa natami (ITK), the representative body of Inuit in Canada, reported in its 2021 food security strategy.

More than three-quarters (77 per cent) of children in Inuit Nunangat, the Inuit homeland in Canada, lived in households that experienced food insecurity in 2022, according to Statistics Canada’s Indigenous People’s Survey. The majority (68 per cent) of Labrador Inuit over the age of 15 reported living in food-insecure households, according to Statscan’s 2017 survey, which offers the most recent Nunatsiavut-specific estimate.

Back on the Labrador sea ice, Mr. Angnatok holds two chips of dirty ice to the sunlight.

The yellowed ice is the tell-tale sign of algae growth, he says. In spring or upinngak, as the sea ice melts and more sunlight reaches the surface, phytoplankton grows and spreads.

During the peak of that process, the spring bloom, dense microalgae concentrations billow and spiral, forming patterns that are distinctive of the buoyant nature of phytoplankton.

While these microscopic organisms may seem worlds apart from country foods such as Arctic char and ringed seals, they are interconnected and highlight the intricate web of life within the marine ecosystem.

“Plankton is essentially the very beginning of the food web or food chain,” says Eleanor Barry, a Memorial University doctoral student who is working with Mr. Angnatok as part of the local effort to better understand plankton dynamics in Nunatsiavut. “It uses sun and carbon dioxide to create energy, which is passed on through the food web to the small fish, which are then eaten by larger fish, seals and people.”

The spring bloom triggers a period of feeding, starting with zooplankton, such as copepods emerging from deep-sea hibernation to the surface.

“Their biological clock wakes them up and they go to the surface to eat,” says Frédéric Cyr, an oceanographer with the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) in St. John’s, who studies bloom timing on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelf.

“This is an adaptation to the environment. And if the environment is changing, then it messes up the biological clock of the ocean.”

“If they don’ t find the bloom–if they are too early or too late–then they will die, they will eat each other and they won’t be able to reproduce,” he says.

That’s the mismatch version of the “match-mismatch theory,” when an organism’s demand for a resource is out-of-sync with the peak abundance of that resource, says Maxime Geoffroy, a marine ecosystem researcher who studies sub-Arctic and Arctic regions at the Marine Institute of Memorial University in St. John’s.

“The spring bloom is getting earlier and earlier in Labrador, so you are prone to this mismatch,” says Mr. Geoffroy, pointing to the relationship between zooplankton and capelin, a forage fish that is food for fish, seals, whales and seabirds.

Both larval and adult capelin depend on zooplankton as a primary source of food.

The latest assessment by the Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat, the independent body that provides advice to the DFO, shows capelin are critically depleted, with a population abundance of just 9 per cent of its historical peak. Scientists say more research is needed to understand the food chain connections between an earlier spring bloom on zoo plan kton and cape lin abundance.

Adding to the complexity, Mr. Geoffroy says, is the warming of the Northwest Atlantic, which is pushing species like capelin northward into colder sub-Arctic and Arctic waters. Despite the cold Labrador Current’s “masking effect,” scientists have noted an increased abundance of capelin in the stomachs of Arctic seabirds, whales, seals and fish, while sand lance, another forage fish, is also becoming more prevalent in northern and Arctic waters.

What is particularly worrisome, scientists say, is that changes in forage fish distribution and earlier bloom timing could serve as bellwethers for declining abundance in cherished wild foods like char. Commonly found throughout the Canadian Arctic, char is as crucial an Inuit food source in the north as Pacific salmon is for First Nations in the west.

Like salmon, migratory char moves from freshwater to reproduce, to saltwater to feed, and back again. Found on the Labrador coast, char live in rivers from the northernmost reaches of the waterways in the Torngat Mountains all the way south to the tip of Newfoundland’s Northern Peninsula.

Labrador Inuit rely on Arctic char in summer and winter for subsistence. The Nunatsiavut government operates a commercial communal char fishery in summer.

Inuk elder Gus Dicker is one of about a dozen commercial char fishers in Nain, the northernmost community on the Labrador coast. From aboard his 20-foot boat, the 72-year-old elder says he has seen changes that threaten the fishing and the fish, too.

“It’s nothing compared to what it used to be when I used to manage the fish plant for about 18 years. We used to have hundreds of fishermen,” Mr. Dicker says.

That was in the eighties. The fish plant ran three shifts, operating 24 hours a day, processing 200,000 pounds of char and salmon in a season.

“Now, they’re lucky to get 35,000 pounds,” Mr. Dicker says.

For the past decade, some local

fishers have reported char are smaller and less abundant–an indication that the fishery, although a shadow of what it was, may be less sustainable.

But Mr. Dicker says he has personally seen better-sized char lately – fish 10 to 12 pounds, compared with ones that averaged a few pounds in the eighties.

Keith Watts, manager of the Torngat Fish Co-op, the Inuitowned and operated fish processor running the two fish plants on the northern coast of Labrador, including the one Mr. Dicker used to run in Nain, also reports better catches in recent years but says no one can say for certain without the science.

“We have seen fluctuations in our population, yes, and we are concerned about the science, or lack of, and that’s why we’ve pushed for the last 20 to 30 years to get more eyes there,” Mr. Watts says. IanBradbury, aDFOresearch scientist, says the challenge in making any predictions about char abundance is that there is no data. The last time the federal fisheries department undertook a stock assessment was 20 years ago, in 2004.

“Is there any data on abundance at the moment to say, ‘well, we’re seeing declines in this region that might support those predictions?’ I’m not sure we do,” he says.

“We need better assessment data for Arctic char. But at the moment, we’re left with ecological studies that, while useful, are not really telling us the most important question – how many fish are there?”

What recent ecological studies have shown is revealing, however.

A 2021 Nature Climate Change study examining the genetic variation of Labrador Arctic char as a marker of climate vulnerability found the southernmost population of char to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and other stressors, with evidence that the southern population was already shifting northward. Greater genetic variation within a species helps that species to adapt to changing environments; however, the authors found that southernmost char “may be unable to adapt to pervasive warming in the Arctic.”

Meanwhile, a 2021 Marine Ecology Progress Series study found that migratory char in Nunatsiavut were able to respond to shifts in their environment, such as finding new prey sources when existing ones were diminished. But that behavioural plasticity, as the authors described it, only holds true to a point and may be “insufficient to deal with the large environmental perturbations expected to arise from a changing climate.”

Similarly, a 2024 Environmental Biology of Fishes study found that “due to their use of distinct habitats at specific life stages, migratory chars are vulnerable to climate-induced changes to habitat quantity and quality.”

While studies that evaluate how char respond to changes in their climate and ecosystem are rare, a 2023 Nature study that examined changes in sea ice conditions, sea surface temperature and plankton bloom timing in northern Labrador found that Arctic char and ringed seals shifted their feeding habits in response to shifts in plankton abundance.

In the years when sea surface temperatures were higher and sea ice concentrations were lower, both species adapted by eating a greater variety of prey. Also, in years when phytoplankton was less abundant, the authors found that char fed further offshore, eating less energy-rich prey. In other words, limitations for plankton, at the base of the food chain, reached up the food web to char, negatively affecting the health and condition of the fish.

Having completed their second season of data collection, with sites around Nain and a few hundred kilometres south near the Nunatsiavut community of Postville, Ms. Barry and Mr. Angnatok hope to have findings by early 2025. What they can say is the sea ice is weakening.

“One concern is we are seeing the ice breaking up earlier, the ice season is becoming shorter,” Ms. Barry says.

Case in point: At what is often the coldest time of year, the end of March, when air temperatures average -30 C with wind chill and the ice is at its thickest, Mr. Angnatok recorded the temperature as 10 degrees warmer and the ice a footand-a-half thinner than normal.

That’s evidence of the same warming trend happening across the region, Mr. Cyr says.

Time series data collected for more than half a century and updated annually to inform the Newfoundland and Labrador Climate Index, which is maintained byDFO and describes the environmental conditions of the Northwest Atlantic ocean, show prevalent sea ice season loss, ice degradation and steady and recordbreaking increases in temperature, both in the air and the sea.

These factors – from sea ice retreat to warmer air and ocean temperatures – define the Northwest Atlantic ocean climate that predicates the spring bloom, Mr. Cyr says.

In a peer-reviewed paper, published in 2023 in Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Mr. Cyr and colleagues showed that warmer ocean conditions, as described by the NL Climate Index (and not limited to sea ice retreat), correlate to the timing of an earlier spring bloom – starting earlier in the southern range (mid-March on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland) and later in the northern limits (late April on the southern Labrador shelf). While the relationship is not as strong, a warmer ocean climate also corresponds to a greater abundance of zooplankton-like copepods.

Mr. Cyr and colleagues undertook the work by microscope and satellite, collecting zooplankton samples across the study region to examine in the lab while capturing the phytoplankton bloom using satellite imagery of ocean colour.

“If you don’t have the vantage point of space for oceanography, you are completely blind to things that are happening there,” says Jeremy Werdell, a research oceanographer at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Mr. Werdell leads the project team that, in February, launched a new satellite called PACE, which stands for Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud ocean Ecosystem, to add to the space agency’s fleet of Earth-observing satellites.

With the ocean covering 71 percent of the surface of the Earth and phytoplankton communities capable of doubling and tripling on a scale of hours to days to weeks, satellite imagery is an oceanographer’s best friend, Mr. Werdell says.

But seasonal ice and persistent cloud coverage in Nunatsiavut inhibits the use of satellite imagery, which is one of the reasons the locally designed IceShark method is invaluable.

Arctic char, ringed seal and moose are some of what’s on offer at the community freezer in Nain at the end of March. Depending on availability, Labrador Inuit can drop by daily to access these nutritious, safe and preferred country foods at the freezer, which is housed in the same building as the Nunatsiavut government research lab where Mr. Angnatok’s sample will go.

That co-location brings benefits that align with a holistic ecosystem-based approach, says Rodd Laing, director of environment at the Nunatsiavut government. After sending an animal sample to the lab, for example, research lab staff prepare the remaining food for the freezer.

“The rest of the food from the fish, seals and seabirds, rather than being wasted, is going into the community freezers and then being distributed to communities as wild food, which is especially important for those who can’t access wild food,” Mr. Laing says.

In a region that struggles with access to affordable food, the community freezer helps residents feed their families while building on an Inuit tradition of sharing food.

Meals of char – and the plankton research by Ms. Barry and Mr. Angnatok – have become even more important with a decreased supply of caribou, another preferred country food.

The George River Caribou Herd has long been a source of sustenance for Labrador Inuit, but a provincial hunting ban remains in place since 2013 as the latest population survey finds the herd’s numbers are historically low.

The latest population estimate at 8,600 is just 1 per cent of its historical peak, according to an October, 2024, Nunatsiavut government release.

More than a source of food, hunting and fishing reconnects Labrador Inuit to a way of life.

In years past, Mr. Dicker recalls the many trips families took returning to their northern homes in Okak Bay, Hebron and Saglek Fjord to fish Arctic char.

The simple practice of getting out in a boat to catch a few Arctic char is enough to reconnect Inuit to a long-held belief system that home is where the harvest is, Mr. Dicker says.

“They weren’t only fishing, they were going back home,” he says.