This opinion was written by Robert Muggah, Co-founder of the Igarapé Institute and principal of SecDev, and was published in the Globe & Mail on November 25, 2025.
The COP30 climate summit opened with flood alerts and closed with a fire, framing the stakes of the negotiations inside. Delegates departed with a mixed result: progress on forests and adaptation finance, and a conspicuous retreat on any promise to phase out fossil fuels. That verdict is disappointing, but it is not the whole story.
Consider some of the real successes achieved in Belém. The core deal boosts finance for climate-vulnerable countries, including a call to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035. COP30 also initiated a process to review how international trade rules align with climate goals. Alongside plans to accelerate more than 110 solutions, Brazil also launched a new tropical forest initiative with pledges of almost US$7-billion with a view of raising US$125-billion in the coming years.
Brazil’s COP presidency also pushed two separate road maps: one to phase out fossil fuels, and another to reach zero deforestation. Either would be consequential; together, they outline a path to slash the bulk of emissions while protecting the forest carbon banks that stabilize the planet. The road maps are gaining traction. Nearly 90 countries endorsed a process to phase out fossil fuels and agreed to reconvene in Colombia in 2026 to keep the supply-side agenda alive.
Now for the bad news. After acrimonious debate, the final text ducked clear language on phasing out oil, gas and coal. This represents a retreat. And because COP runs on consensus, even a small bloc can water down the language. That is precisely what happened in Belém, abetted by petrostate politics and more than 1,600 industry lobbyists – more representatives than all the country delegations combined.
And yet, in a geopolitically fractured era – with wars raging, trade spats hardening and the U.S. electing to sit this one out – 193 countries still found a way to agree. That is not trivial. Multilateralism did not buckle; it bent, and then produced a compromise that moves money for adaptation and tightens co-operation on forests, mangroves and oceans. The rule of consensus can be an anchor and an ankle weight, and in Belém, it was both. We should acknowledge the achievement without romanticizing the cost.
Crucially, COP30 also underlined how climate outcomes are not just determined by states, but by a much wider cast. Inside and outside the halls, cities committed to electrify bus fleets and cool heat islands; companies set tougher supply chain standards and procurement targets; Indigenous organizations secured stronger land-tenure protections that keep forests standing; and investors and insurers refined the risk math that makes capital more expensive for high-carbon assets.
Hundreds of initiatives were launched or scaled during the two weeks in Belém. None requires permission from holdout capitals. All create facts on the ground. This is how progress will come in the near term: not just by editing commas in communiqués, but by building coalitions that rewire markets, grids and land use faster than the slowest national government will allow. Think of the Brazilian road maps as ways to mobilize willing partners over the coming year, an approach that can harden into norms and, eventually, into law.
To be clear, none of these new commitments excuse the failure to name the problem. While the final text reaffirmed the 1.5 C target set in Paris, the result left many wondering how credible a climate deal can be if it won’t name, much less end, the fuels driving the crisis. The credibility gap is not semantic: it is material. Adaptation finance pledged for 2035 does not repair a washedout bridge. A side text on forests does not stop an illegal clearing tomorrow. We must demand faster, clearer delivery and we should build the institutions that make it possible, from debt relief tied to climate investment to insurance and liquidity backstops that get money where it is needed most.
But COP30 is a reminder to resist the easy fatalism that says the process is broken beyond repair. It isn’t. COP remains the only table where every country, enthusiastic or obstructive, must sit. That is both its weakness and its strength. When the centre cannot force ambition, the periphery has to pull. Cities, development banks and corporate buyers can tighten the political leash and narrow the space for backsliding before negotiators meet again.
The message from Belém isn’t that climate multilateralism has failed. It is that we have seen where it stops, and now need to do what it cannot. If a minority of countries can block even rhetorical ambition, a majority of actors can still deliver the strongest deeds. The multitude of initiatives launched by local governments, companies and civil society show where momentum lives.
The world won’t wait for perfect consensus. Neither should we.